Grid Interconnection Queue Timelines, US + UK

Full data in Ch4_Stakes/EV15_EV17_EV18_Evidence_Notes.md — mirrored here for Ch.1 drafting use

The headline numbers for the pacing argument

• US: As of end of 2024, ~2,300 GW of generation and storage capacity waiting for grid connection. Median wait time: nearly 5 years for projects built in 2023-24, compared to under 2 years for projects built in 2000-2007.
• UK depots: Connecting a MW-scale EV fleet depot takes 9–12 months minimum (lead time, not planning time) and costs £100,000+ just for the grid connection, before any civil or charging equipment costs.

Why this is the pacing problem argument

The pacing problem is usually illustrated with planning processes or regulatory timelines. The grid queue data makes the same argument in infrastructure terms — and is arguably more striking because it’s not a process problem, it’s a physical constraint.

Technology timelines: Waymo scaled from 10,000 to 450,000 weekly rides in under 2 years. Grid connection timelines: 5 years to get a new project connected.

These are not close. A city that begins planning its grid infrastructure when a commercial CAM fleet arrives will be 3–5 years behind from day one. That is not a governance failure — it is an intrinsic feature of the infrastructure system. The question is whether cities understand this mismatch and plan accordingly.

Framing for Ch.1

This evidence works best as one of three or four pacing illustrations (not the only one). The argument structure should be:

1. Technology deployment is accelerating (Waymo 25× growth in 2 years)
2. Grid infrastructure has multi-year connection queues (5-year median wait)
3. Planning and entitlement for transport infrastructure takes similar timescales (EV03)
4. Procurement cycles for city transport technology are 5-10 year cycles (EV04 — not yet pulled)
5. Therefore, the mismatch is structural, not contingent

Cite as:

• LBNL “Queued Up: 2025 Edition” — https://emp.lbl.gov/queues
• Ofgem / ENA fleet connection guidance — https://www.energynetworks.org/industry/connecting-to-the-networks/connecting-electric-vehicle-fleets