Goldman Sachs forecasts global robotaxi market at $415 billion by 2035, with fleet growing from 7,000 to 6 million vehicles

Headline Finding

Goldman Sachs Research (April 2026) projects the global commercial robotaxi fleet will expand from roughly 7,000 vehicles in 2025 to approximately 1 million by 2030 and 6 million by 2035 — a roughly 860-fold increase in a decade. The global robotaxi market is forecast to reach $415 billion in 2035, with the US portion alone at $48 billion (up from a prior estimate of $7 billion for 2030, now revised to $19 billion). Leading AV operators plan to be operating in 15 or more cities globally by end of 2026, with some targeting more than 20 cities. This deployment velocity is the clearest quantitative signal yet that the technology clock is running far ahead of the governance clock: cities that have not yet established licensing, spatial-allocation, or fiscal frameworks face a rapidly closing window.

Detail

Goldman Sachs Research analyst Mark Delaney (report published April 30, 2026) provides the following figures: Global robotaxi market — ~$415 billion in 2035; US robotaxi market — $19 billion in 2030 (revised sharply upward from a prior estimate of $7 billion) and $48 billion in 2035. Global commercial AV robotaxi fleet — ~7,000 vehicles in 2024/2025, ~1 million in 2030, ~6 million in 2035. For a vertically integrated operator (builds and operates its own fleet), gross margins estimated at 30%–50%, implying a global gross profit pool of ~$150 billion in 2035 and cumulative gross profits from robotaxis alone of ~$440 billion over the next decade. Total cost of goods sold per mile for a vertically integrated US AV rideshare operator projected to drop below $1 by 2035; vehicle depreciation cost falls from ~$0.35/mile in 2025 to ~$0.14/mile in 2035; ratio of vehicles per human remote supervisor improves from 6-to-1 today to 26-to-1 in 2035. Leading AV operators plan to operate in 15+ cities globally by end of 2026, some targeting 20+ cities. Deployments are described as expanding across the US, China, and new international markets including parts of Europe and the Middle East.

Governance Implication

1. TECHNOLOGY CLOCK: The forecast 860-fold fleet expansion (7,000 → 6 million vehicles) over ten years, combined with operators targeting 20+ cities by end of 2026, means the deployment clock is accelerating sharply — cities that lack licensing, zoning, or data-access frameworks today will face commercial-scale operations before governance catches up (chapter 1-pacing-problem).
2. FISCAL LEVER: A $415 billion global market and ~$150 billion gross profit pool in 2035 represent a substantial taxable base and potential source of road-use, congestion, or per-mile levy revenue for cities — but only if fiscal instruments (franchise fees, per-trip levies, curb-access pricing) are designed and enacted before operators establish pricing norms and political lock-in.
3. SPATIAL-ALLOCATION LEVER: Fleet growth to 6 million vehicles globally implies massive demand for curb space, pick-up/drop-off zones, and charging infrastructure; cities that do not proactively allocate and price this space risk ceding it by default to operators, destroying public value on the spatial-allocation lever.
4. LEGITIMACY LEVER: The upward revision of the US 2030 market estimate from $7 billion to $19 billion signals that analyst confidence in near-term commercial viability has grown substantially — this raises the political stakes for regulators and city governments to demonstrate credible oversight frameworks, or face legitimacy deficits if safety or equity incidents occur at scale.
5. CONFIDENCE CAVEAT: These are investment-bank market forecasts, not regulatory filings or operational data; the figures reflect Goldman Sachs Research’s modelling assumptions and should be treated as directional rather than precise — confidence is medium.

Sources

Goldman Sachs Insights, ‘Robotaxis Are Forecast to Become a $400 Billion Market in 2035’, April 30, 2026. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/robotaxis-to-become-a-400-billion-dollar-market-in-2035. Primary analyst: Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs Research. Source kind: secondary (investment research summary article).