Chapter 8 · EV42

Regulatory Horizon Scan: Upcoming AV Legislation (2025-2026)

Date collected: 26 May 2026

Summary

US, EU, UK, China all advancing AV frameworks 2025-26; federal preemption, liability, data-sharing rules converging; regulatory arbitrage risk rising

EV42 — Regulatory Horizon Scan: Upcoming AV Legislation (2025-2026)

Summary for Drafting

The regulatory landscape for autonomous vehicles is in active flux across the UK, EU, and US, with major legislative and regulatory changes expected in 2025-2026. The UK Automated Vehicles Act 2024 (Royal Assent May 2024) is the most comprehensive framework to date, enabling commercial pilots from Spring 2026 but leaving the “self-driving test” definition undefined. The EU AI Act (with high-risk provisions effective August 2026) will apply compliance requirements to autonomous driving systems, though sectoral legislation (Type Approval Regulations) takes precedence. The US is pursuing parallel federal legislative paths (AV Acceleration Act 2025, SELF DRIVE Act 2026) while NHTSA modernizes FMVSS via rulemaking (spring 2026 proposals expected). UNECE WP.29 is developing a global L3/L4 regulation expected by mid-2026. This evidence supports the argument that governance windows for CAM deployment are opening—but alignment between UK, EU, and US frameworks is not guaranteed, creating risks for multinational deployments. For UK cities specifically: the AV Act enables local trials, but the unresolved “self-driving test” means operators face ongoing uncertainty about what constitutes compliant operation.

Key Data Points

UK Automated Vehicles Act 2024

Status & Timeline:

Royal Assent: 20 May 2024
Implementation Programme: Published 26 February 2025
Described as: “One of the most comprehensive legal frameworks of its kind anywhere in the world”

Key Provisions:

Authorisation Framework:
- Vehicles must pass a “self-driving test” to become “authorised automated vehicles”
- Test definition: Vehicle must “travel autonomously and can do so safely and legally”
- Status: Test specifications NOT YET DEFINED as of February 2026 (still in development by DVSA/DfT)
Liability & Responsibility:
- Users of AVs protected from criminal/civil liability when automated vehicle features engaged
- Ultimate liability shifts to manufacturer or operator (with exceptions)
- Users NOT liable if transition demand issued and they fail to comply
Commercial Deployment Path:
- Regulated framework for “no-user-in-charge” (NUiC) operations
- Automated Passenger Services (APS) regulations to be accelerated
- Commercial pilots with paying passengers (no safety driver) expected from Spring 2026
Regulatory Powers:
- Secretary of State given broad information-gathering, investigatory, and monitoring powers
- Vehicle Certification Agency (VCA) empowered to issue Vehicle Special Orders (VSOs) for exemptions
- Exemption route for organizations unable to comply with full AV Act requirements
Marketing Restrictions:
- Controls on marketing claims about vehicle automation (prevent false safety claims)

Safety Principles:

Authorised AVs must achieve “level of safety equivalent to, or higher than, that of careful and competent human drivers”
Road safety in Great Britain must improve as a result of AV use

Governance Implications for Cities:

Opportunity: UK framework is permissive; cities can trial AVs under regulated exemption process
Constraint: Undefined “self-driving test” creates ongoing regulatory uncertainty for operators
Timeline: Commercial deployment window opens Spring 2026, but full operational clarity may extend into 2026-2027

Citation:

EU AI Act — High-Risk AV Provisions (Effective August 2026)

Status & Timeline:

Entered into force: November 2024
High-risk AI provisions effective: 2 August 2026
Applies to all AI systems deployed in EU, including autonomous vehicles

Classification of AVs Under EU AI Act:

High-Risk AI Determination:
- AI systems controlling or supporting autonomous driving classified as high-risk if they are: a) Safety components in products requiring third-party certification (applies to AVs), OR b) Intended uses in Annex III categories (autonomous vehicles explicitly listed)
Scope: AI systems “on or in connection with AVs affecting driving and passenger safety”

Compliance Requirements (for High-Risk Systems):

Data & Robustness Requirements (Articles 10 & 15):
- High-quality training, testing, validation datasets
- Technical documentation of robustness and resilience testing
- System behavior predictability and reliability
Human Oversight (Article 14):
- Design and operation enabling meaningful human oversight
- Operators must have authority and ability to intervene/override
Monitoring & Post-Market Surveillance:
- Continuous monitoring of system performance
- Incident reporting and recall procedures
Transparency & Documentation:
- Technical files and documentation of AI system behavior
- Risk assessments

Critical Caveat: Sectoral Legislation Takes Precedence

EU AI Act explicitly recognizes that AVs are already regulated by sectoral legislation (Type Approval Regulation 2018/858, General Safety Regulation 2019/2144)
Where sectoral AI-related requirements exist, sectoral legislation applies—not the ordinary high-risk AI regime
Implication: Type Approval process (through UNECE WP.29) may be the primary compliance route for AVs, with AI Act requirements nested within it

Governance Implications:

Compliance Window: Manufacturers and operators must achieve compliance by 2 August 2026
Alignment Risk: If UK AV Act “self-driving test” and EU AI Act high-risk requirements diverge, multinational trials face dual compliance burdens
Data Requirements: Emphasis on datasets may advantage companies with large training datasets (Waymo, Tesla, Chinese OEMs)

Citation:

US Federal AV Legislation (2025-2026)

Status of Proposed Bills:

Bill 1: Autonomous Vehicle Acceleration Act of 2025 (S.1798)

Introduced: 2025 (119th Congress)
Status: In committee (not yet passed)
Provisions:
- Updates Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) to remove assumptions of human driver design
- Modernizes requirements for steering wheels, brake pedals, seating, window placement, defrost controls, lighting
- Creates streamlined federal framework for L4/L5 vehicle certification
- Removes regulatory obstacles to driverless vehicle production

Bill 2: Safely Ensuring Lives Future Deployment and Research In Vehicle Evolution Act of 2026 (SELF DRIVE Act)

Status: Discussion draft (released early 2026 by Reps. Bob Latta and Debbie Dingell)
Not yet formally introduced for markup
Provisions:
- First federal statute dedicated specifically to AV safety
- Addresses gaps in current NHTSA framework
- Details still evolving (draft soliciting stakeholder feedback)

Key Context:

Both bills acknowledge that current FMVSS (assuming human drivers) are misaligned with driverless vehicle design requirements
Neither has passed Congress as of March 2026; both likely to be negotiated/modified in 2026 Surface Transportation Reauthorization

2026 Surface Transportation Reauthorization:

Deadline: Congress must reauthorize surface transportation funding by 30 September 2026
Opportunity: AV STARTUP Act or SELF DRIVE Act “or some variation thereof” likely to be folded into larger reauthorization bill
Political Context: Trump/Duffy Administration (2025+) is pro-innovation on AVs, likely to support modernization

Expected NHTSA Rulemaking (2026):

NHTSA plans to propose three new rules in spring 2026 to update outdated safety standards for vehicles with automated driving systems
Anticipated Changes:
- Relaxing mandates for manual controls (steering wheels, gear shifters)
- Removing requirements for windshield wipers, defrost buttons
- Relaxing certain lighting equipment requirements for driverless vehicles
Mechanism: Administrative rulemaking (faster than legislation; does not require Congressional approval)

State-Level Coordination:

California: Updating regulations to allow heavy-duty autonomous vehicles (over 10,001 lbs) to be tested and deployed with DMV permit; improved data reporting requirements; new traffic violation enforcement mechanism for AV manufacturers
Texas: Now requires permits for fully autonomous vehicles (new requirement 2025)
Expected Pattern: Other states likely to follow with updated regulations 2025-2026

Governance Implications:

US Framework Lag: Unlike UK (AV Act 2024) and EU (AI Act 2024), US lacks comprehensive federal AV legislation as of March 2026
Multi-Level Governance: Federal (NHTSA rules), state (CA, TX, other), and local (city permitting) frameworks operate in parallel with gaps
Scale-Up Bottleneck: Without federal framework, mass deployment faces uncertain legal status across state lines
Timing: Federal rules expected spring 2026; final legislative action may extend to fall 2026 (surface transportation reauth)

Citation:

UNECE WP.29 — Global Regulation Development

Status & Timeline:

Level 3 (Conditional Automation - ALKS):

Regulation No. 157 (Automated Lane Keeping Systems): Adopted January 2021
Successive Amendments (2022+): Clarified operational behavior, system safety, failsafe protocols
Recent Update (WP.29/2025/64 supplement): Clearer rules for lane-change behavior and heavy vehicle restrictions
Status: IN EFFECT; allows L3 systems to be certified and deployed in EU/UNECE markets

Level 4 (High Automation - ADS):

Global ADS Regulation Initiative: Launched June 2024
Expected Delivery: Mid-2026
Current Status (as of March 2026): GRVA agreed on structure for development; details still being negotiated
Planned Vote: WP.29 vote on ADS proposals scheduled for 24-27 June 2025 session (or subsequent sessions)

Implications:

Timing: Global L4 regulation likely to be available for reference/adoption by late 2026 or 2027
Coordination: UK and EU both participate in UNECE process; framework alignment likely (but not guaranteed)
Leverage: Countries like South Korea (March 2025 enforcement decree update) and China are pursuing national L4 frameworks in parallel
Fragmentation Risk: If UNECE process stalls, countries may adopt divergent national L4 standards

South Korea Example:

March 2025: Enforcement decree of Act on Promotion and Support for Commercialisation of AVs updated
Provisions: Performance certification and approval for Level 4 autonomous vehicles enabled
Implication: Asia-Pacific region moving forward with L4 deployment while Western frameworks still in development

Citation:

Comparative Regulatory Timeline

Region	Key Legislation	Current Status	Key Provisions	Deployment Window
UK	Automated Vehicles Act 2024	Royal Assent (May 2024); Implementation Programme (Feb 2025)	Authorisation framework; NUiC liability; APS regulations	Spring 2026 (commercial pilots)
EU	AI Act 2024; Type Approval Reg 2018/858	AI Act effective 2 Aug 2026; Type Approval ongoing	High-risk AI compliance; sectoral precedence	2026-2027
US	AV Acceleration Act (S.1798); SELF DRIVE Act (draft 2026)	Bills in development; no law passed; NHTSA rulemaking planned	FMVSS modernization; federal framework development	Spring 2026 (rules); Fall 2026 (possible legislation)
UN/Global	UNECE WP.29 L3/L4 Regulations	L3 (ALKS) approved 2021; L4 framework expected mid-2026	Harmonized safety & operational standards	L3 now; L4 by late 2026/2027

Key Unresolved Questions (As of March 2026)

UK “Self-Driving Test” Definition: Still undefined; when will detailed specifications be published? Will operators have clarity before Spring 2026 pilots?
UK-EU Regulatory Alignment Post-Brexit: How will UK self-driving test align with EU AI Act high-risk requirements? Dual compliance or mutual recognition?
US Federal Framework Coherence: Will AV Acceleration Act and SELF DRIVE Act be folded into one bill, or passed separately? Will NHTSA rules be sufficient without legislation?
UNECE WP.29 L4 Adoption Timeline: Will mid-2026 L4 regulation draft be acceptable to EU/UK, or will further negotiations delay implementation into 2027+?
State-vs-Federal Authority (US): How will federal rules interact with state-level California/Texas frameworks? Risk of conflicting requirements for multinational operators.
Data & Training Dataset Requirements: EU AI Act emphasizes dataset quality; will UK/US require equivalent data governance? Advantage to large-dataset companies (Waymo, Chinese OEMs)?

Governance Implications for Cities & CAM Deployment

For UK Cities:

Opportunities (2026+):

Automated Vehicles Act 2024 framework is permissive and well-designed
Commercial pilot path opens Spring 2026
NUiC (no-user-in-charge) operations legally enabled
Local trial exemptions available via VCA/VSO process

Constraints:

“Self-driving test” definition not yet public (regulatory uncertainty)
Commercial pilot timelines uncertain (depends on when full APS regulations published)
Alignment with EU requirements unclear (UK-EU data-sharing, mutual recognition)

Recommendation: UK cities should prepare governance frameworks now (including community engagement, liability insurance, emergency response protocols) while waiting for “self-driving test” clarification. Early movers can position for Spring 2026 pilots.

For EU Cities:

Opportunities:

AI Act and Type Approval Regulation create clear (if complex) compliance framework
Sectoral precedence for Type Approval may streamline AI compliance
UNECE L3 (ALKS) already in effect; L4 regulation expected mid-2026

Constraints:

AI Act high-risk compliance requirements strict (datasets, monitoring, transparency, human oversight)
Sectoral legislation fragmentation (Type Approval, General Safety Regulation, AI Act) creates coordination burden
Data governance requirements may disadvantage startups vs. large OEMs

Recommendation: EU cities should coordinate with Type Approval authorities (VCA equivalent in their country) to understand how AI Act requirements integrate with vehicle type approval processes.

For US Cities:

Opportunities:

NHTSA rulemaking (spring 2026) may provide clarity on FMVSS modernization
Multi-level governance allows local innovation (city permitting, not solely federal control)

Constraints:

Lack of comprehensive federal AV law as of March 2026 creates uncertainty
Multi-state deployments face fragmented state-level requirements (CA, TX rules differ)
Congressional legislative process slow; 2026 surface transportation reauth may slip to 2027

Recommendation: US cities should engage with state transportation authorities (CA DMV, TX TxDOT) to understand state-level framework before committing to local CAM pilots. Federal framework may not stabilize until late 2026 or 2027.

Drafting Notes for Chapter 9 (“What To Do Now”)

Use this evidence to argue:

Regulatory Windows Are Opening (2026 is Critical):
- UK Spring 2026: Commercial pilots possible under AV Act
- EU August 2026: AI Act high-risk provisions live
- US Spring 2026: NHTSA rules expected; legislative action by fall
- UNECE mid-2026: L4 regulation draft expected
- Action: Cities must move now to prepare governance frameworks; 2026 is implementation year, not planning year.
Alignment Risk is Real—But Manageable:
- UK/EU frameworks are well-designed but different (AV Act vs. AI Act precedence)
- US federal framework lags; state-level fragmentation continues
- Action: Cities should coordinate across jurisdictions; multinational operators will demand harmonized requirements. Harmonization work should start in 2026.
“Self-Driving Test” Clarity is Critical for UK:
- AV Act enables deployment but test definition is missing
- Spring 2026 pilots may launch with regulatory uncertainty
- Action: UK government should prioritize publication of “self-driving test” guidance by Q2 2026 (NOW).
Data Governance Will Be Competitive Advantage:
- EU AI Act emphasizes dataset quality and monitoring
- Large-dataset companies (Waymo, Chinese OEMs) may have advantage
- Action: Smaller operators should begin data governance strategies now; cities should require transparent dataset documentation.
Multi-Level Governance is the Baseline:
- No single authority (national or global) will control AV deployment
- UK, EU, US, UNECE frameworks must co-exist and coordinate
- Action: Cities must build governance capacity across multiple levels (local, national, international).

Key Quote for Chapter: “The regulatory landscape for autonomous vehicles is in rapid flux, but the direction is clear: comprehensive frameworks are emerging across UK, EU, and US in 2025-2026. The window for city action is now. Governance cannot wait for federal perfection; it must adapt incrementally as rules clarify. Cities that build governance capacity now will shape CAM deployment. Cities that wait for perfect regulations will be followers.”

Sources

Thread