Grid Hosting Capacity Constraints for Depot-Scale EV Charging

US Interconnection Queue (LBNL “Queued Up” 2025 Edition — data through end of 2024)

Queue size: ~2,300 GW of generation and storage capacity seeking connection as of end of 2024

• This is roughly 2× total current US electricity generating capacity (~1,200 GW)
• Slight decline from 2,600 GW peak in 2023 — first decrease in over a decade
• ~10,300 individual projects actively seeking interconnection

Wait times:

• Median time from interconnection request to commercial operation: nearly 5 years (for projects built in 2023/24)
• Compare: less than 2 years for projects built in 2000–2007
• The wait time has more than doubled in under two decades

Attrition:

• Only 13% of capacity that submitted requests (2000–2019) had reached commercial operation by end of 2024
• 77% had been withdrawn; 10% still active (pending)
• Withdrawals surged 51% in 2024 — partly due to FERC Order 2023 reforms forcing non-viable projects out

FERC Order 2023 (interconnection reform):

• Introduced cluster studies (projects studied in batches rather than serially)
• Shifted to “first ready, first served” rather than “first come, first served”
• Early evidence: 33% more interconnection agreements processed in 2024 vs prior year
• But: no clear evidence yet that reforms have meaningfully shortened actual timelines to commercial operation

UK Grid: EV Depot Charging Constraints

Scale of depot charging demand:

• A typical EV fleet depot requires up to 2 MW overnight load (e.g. DPD’s 45-site electrification programme)
• Installing a bank of rapid chargers can pull as much power as a small industrial estate
• Many urban substations are already at or near capacity

Rapid charger costs (UK, urban):

• Standard rapid chargers (50-150 kW): £40,000–£80,000 installed in urban zones
• Grid upgrades absorb 50–60% of the total installation budget
• Ultra-fast units (requiring dedicated 11 kV feed + DNO-mandated transformer): up to £180,000
• MW-scale depot connections: £100,000+ and 9–12 months lead time minimum

DNO capacity situation:

• Many urban areas have no spare capacity in local substations
• Most DNOs now offer interactive hosting capacity maps (following Ofgem’s Access and Forward-Looking Charges review, April 2023)
• “Demand customers” no longer required to pay for network upgrades under 2023 rule changes (cost shifted to wider network)

Key planning implication: Grid capacity constraints are not theoretical future barriers — they are the immediate chokepoint for fleet electrification. Operators planning large-scale EV fleet deployments in dense urban areas are already encountering 1–2 year connection queues and six-figure grid upgrade costs per site. A CAM fleet of 500+ vehicles in an urban depot would require careful grid planning and potentially trigger major local network reinforcement.

What this means for Ch.4 argument

The grid interconnection data closes the loop on the fiscal stakes argument: cities cannot simply accommodate CAM fleets by waiting for operators to bring their vehicles. The grid infrastructure required to support those fleets — at depot scale — requires multi-year planning, capital investment, and negotiation with DNOs/utilities that are themselves capacity-constrained. This is not a background technical issue; it is an investment decision that falls within city planning and utility regulation jurisdiction.

This evidence also directly serves Ch.1 (The Pacing Problem): The US interconnection queue data is the sharpest available illustration of the pacing problem in infrastructure terms. Technology deployment timelines are measured in months; grid interconnection timelines are measured in years. A nearly 5-year wait for grid connection is the pacing problem made quantitative.

Cite as:

• LBNL “Queued Up: 2025 Edition” (data through end of 2024) — https://emp.lbl.gov/queues
• LBNL Grid Connection Backlog press release — https://emp.lbl.gov/news/grid-connection-backlog-grows-30-2023
• UK: Ofgem / ENA “Connecting Electric Vehicle Fleets” — https://www.energynetworks.org/industry/connecting-to-the-networks/connecting-electric-vehicle-fleets
• UK: ZPNE Energy “How to Charge EVs with Limited Grid Connections” — https://www.zpnenergy.com/how-to-charge-evs-with-limited-grid-connections-a-practical-uk-guide
• UK: EV Infrastructure News “Grid constraints will prevent eHGV rollout” — https://www.evinfrastructurenews.com/ev-networks/grid-constraints-will-prevent-ehgv-rollout-

---

Drafting Notes for Ch.4

For the fiscal stakes opening (EV15)

Lead with the UK data (cleaner, better documented): English councils generated over £1 billion in net parking surplus in 2023-24 — a record. Nearly half of that (£1.065bn total income) came from London alone. Westminster’s surplus alone exceeded £75 million. These are not abstract projections — they are real revenue streams that are embedded in council financial plans, budgeted for 2024-25 at £1.12bn.

Then move to the structural vulnerability: the income is concentrated precisely where CAM deployment is most likely — inner London, dense urban cores. The cities most financially exposed are the same cities most commercially attractive to operators.

For the grid stakes (EV18)

The US interconnection queue data gives you the headline number: 2,300 GW waiting for grid connection, with a median 5-year wait time. Use this to establish that the assumption “cities can simply plug in fleets when operators arrive” is wrong — the grid investment required to support large-scale EV fleet operations at urban depots takes years of planning and carries six-figure costs per site before the first vehicle charges.

Flagged for further pulls

• EV16 (Enforcement revenue): US city parking enforcement revenue trend data. UK already well-covered by RAC Foundation data above. For US: Chicago parking meter revenues by year; NYC Dept of Finance violation revenue
• EV19 (Parking structure utilisation): BPA / ULI data needed. Not yet pulled.
• EV20 (Conversion costs): ULI Parking as a Catalyst 2022 report. Not yet pulled.
• EV21 (Depot land economics): Partially covered above (per-charger costs, MW requirements). Need land area per vehicle and capital cost per charger by type (Level 2 / DC fast / ultra-rapid).